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What is a value bet in sports betting

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What is a Value Bet in Sports Betting?

In the world of sports betting, understanding the concept of a value bet is crucial for making informed decisions and maximizing potential profits. This article aims to provide a concise yet comprehensive overview of what a value bet is, its positive aspects, benefits, and the conditions under which it can be effectively utilized.

I. Understanding Value Bets:

  • Definition: A value bet is a wager that offers favorable odds or probabilities, where the potential payoff exceeds the perceived risk.
  • Key Concept: Value bets are placed when the probability of an outcome occurring is higher than what the odds imply.

II. Positive Aspects of Value Bets:

  1. Profit Potential:
  • By identifying value bets, bettors can potentially secure long-term profitability.
  • Value bets offer higher returns on investment, leading to increased earnings over time.
  1. Competitive Advantage:
  • Identifying value bets gives bettors an edge over bookmakers who may have undervalued certain outcomes.
  • By capitalizing on these opportunities, bettors can maximize their chances of winning.

III. Benefits of Value Bets:

  1. Increased Winning Probability:
  • Value bets are based on careful analysis and research, allowing bettors to make more informed choices.
  • By identifying value bets
The easiest example of a value bet is with a simple coin toss. The true odds for heads or tails is 50/50 or even money (+100). If the betting site were to offer you +110 then this is higher than the actual probability of the result and as a result, offers value.

How do value bets work?

A value bet is when you calculate the true odds of an event happening. Then you compare this to the bookmaker's odds to see if you can make a positive return on a wager. This approach to sports betting requires knowledge of expected value (EV bets) and the bookmaker margin.

How do you know if a bet has value?

For example, you would make a value bet when you consider a basketball team to have a 60% chance of winning, but the odds offered imply they have only a 40% chance (approximate decimal odds of 2.50). That is: Value = (0.60 * 2.5) - 1 = 1.50 - 1 = 0.50 (being greater than 0 is value).

What is a value odds bet?

Value bets help you find interesting bets with mathematically calculated value. We compare the odds at a bookmaker with the total average odds of the same outcome.

What are value bets in football?

A value bet (+EV) is when the bookmaker's odds are better (higher) than an outcome's true odds (actual likelihood). These value bets exist because bookmakers must balance their books and other market factors. The value bets are where the Bookmaker Odds (blue) are higher than the True Odds (orange).

What is the +/- in betting?

A plus (+) represents longer odds, in which case you'll win more for your wager, while a minus (-) means you're betting on a more likely outcome (as deemed by the sportsbook) and will win less when you emerge victorious. For example, $100 on +110 odds wins you $110, while $110 on -110 odds wins you $100.

What does value mean in betting?

A value bet is simply a bet where the likelihood of a given outcome is higher than what the odds offered reflect. This means that the expected return is statistically positive.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +4.5 mean in betting?

Above is an football point spread. Pittsburgh is +4.5, with Cincinnati at -4.5, which means Pittsburgh is a 4.5-point underdog and Cincinnati is favored by 4.5 points. For a bet on Pittsburgh to win at +4.5, they can either win the game outright or not lose by an amount that surpasses 4.5.

What is the formula for value betting?

A value bet is a bet where you believe that the odds of an event happening are greater than the odds offered by the bookmaker. The value of a bet is calculated using the formula: Value = (Odds * Odds) - 1. If the resulting value is greater than 0, it is considered a value bet.

Is value betting worth it?

Value bettors are long-term winners. By using value betting strategies you will basically be exploiting the incorrectly priced bookmaker's odds and always place bets with better odds than what the actual probability is. As you're only betting on overpriced odds, you will be profitable in the long term.

How do you spot a value bet?

How to identify value bets
  1. Calculate the implied probability;
  2. Calculate true probability and therefore the fair odds;
  3. Apply the expected value formula and calculate the expected return;
  4. If the expected return is positive,a value bet has been found.

What is the difference between arbitrage and value bet?

In an arbitrage bet or surebet, you will bet on all outcomes of the game for a sure win. In a value bet you only bet on one outcome of the game. Thus the risk is higher, but so is the potential reward. A typical arbitrage bet is typically around a 1% edge.

FAQ

How do you find good value bets?
Value Betting Strategy First, use available team and player data, like form, previous correct scores and more detailed numbers to help your true value calculations. Look at team shots, expected goals, possession, defensive performance and key players. Then compare this with the opposing team.
What is a good amount to bet?
We typically recommend that a sports investor bet 1%-3% of their bankroll on each bet. Conservative sports investors (or beginners) should bet 1%-2% on a play. Note that professional's betting unit sizes are normally in the 1% range. Aggressive sports investors might want to bet 3% on a play.
What is a good value bet poker?
A value bet in poker is a bet made with the best hand in order to get value from worse hands. It is easy to value bet when you have a strong hand like a flush or a straight. But the poker pros make value bets with weaker hands like middle pair or bottom pair also.
Is value bet profitable?
If you place enough value bets, you will make a long term profit which is key to successful betting. The more bets you place, the more money and higher profits will you make. The average return of investment (ROI) for value bettors using the value betting software from RebelBetting is over 30% profit per month.

What is a value bet in sports betting

Is value betting profitable? If you place enough value bets, you will make a long term profit which is key to successful betting. The more bets you place, the more money and higher profits will you make. The average return of investment (ROI) for value bettors using the value betting software from RebelBetting is over 30% profit per month.
Is value betting risk free? Value betting is not risk-free. You must be prepared for downswings and sometimes you will lose several bets in a row. But since the bets have a positive expected value, you will always make a long-term profit. Requires only one bookmaker account, but 3-4 is recommended when starting out.
How do you start value betting? Value betting – Beginner guide
  1. An internet connection and a computer or mobile.
  2. A RebelBetting subscription.
  3. Some capital to invest (you can start with as little as a few hundred euros).
  4. Sign up with a few recommended bookmakers for value betting (you can start with just one, but more bookmakers mean more value bets).
How do you find good value sports bets? To find value from this game we need to oppose one or more of the probabilities. If we think that a team has more chance of winning, then the bet offers value. If we think they have less chance of winning, then the bet does not offer value.
  • What is the most profitable way to sports bet?
    • Hedging bets is by far the most successful betting strategy. This is where you're able to place multiple bets to cover all possible results and still make a profit regardless of the outcome of the game.
  • What is the formula for the value bet?
    • A value bet is a bet where you believe that the odds of an event happening are greater than the odds offered by the bookmaker. The value of a bet is calculated using the formula: Value = (Odds * Odds) - 1. If the resulting value is greater than 0, it is considered a value bet.
  • How do you find positive value bets?
    • The best place to find value is to specialise on niche markets, where the playing field is more level between bookmakers and bettors on an exchange. Once you understand the market well, you will be able to identify odds that are skewed from your implied probability, giving you a positive EV over time.
  • Are value bets profitable?
    • If you place enough value bets, you will make a long term profit which is key to successful betting. The more bets you place, the more money and higher profits will you make. The average return of investment (ROI) for value bettors using the value betting software from RebelBetting is over 30% profit per month.